The turn-around of U.S. fossil fuel energy fortunes has been stunning over the past fifteen years. From a general (not universal, but general) understanding that the U.S. had passed peak natural gas and that the globe was facing eminent peak oil, the general (not universal, but general) perspective is that U.S. natural gas supplies are absurdly close to limitless and that oil production can increase significantly over a sustained period of time. Amid this seemingly rosy economic story, there have been analysts and industry specialists warning of risks of a financial bust: that there is a shell game of debt financing moving around with fracked natural gas simply not being a profitable endeavor with sustained low natural gas prices. While there might be great substance to these perspectives, the reality is that such a financial bust simply hasn't been a real part of the U.S. oil and natural gas primary story line for the past few years.
The seemingly rosy oil and natural gas story might -- or might not -- be packaged around financial risk and a looming financial bust, but continued aggressive pursuit of it will generate a a far more consequential and far more certain bust.
Oil Change International's just-released report Drilling for Disaster makes this headlong rush toward bust quite clear. With plans for additional oil and natural gas exploitation the equivalent of adding 1,000 new coal-fired power plants, they assess that the O&NG industry's plans are "incompatible with climate limits." In other words, as CNN puts it, "America's oil boom is terrible for the climate."
All those who believe that the answer is "all of the above" must rethink their beliefs. While it might produce near-term financial rewards and produce some other benefits, the fundamental reality is that full-throated exploitation of America's oil and natural gas will assure climate catastrophe. No matter the short-term benefit streams, this is an assured path toward a catastrophic bust.
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While our attention, quite legitimately and reasonably, is drawn to the crisis of and in American Democracy that derives from Trump’s occupation of the Oval Office and the GOP’s devotion to the #CultOfTrump, there are quite serious issues and crises all around us that require attention. The (or, at minimum, one of the) most serious: climate change. And here, the GOP Cult of Trump is having potentially catastrophic impact. As Joe Romm headlined it earlier today:
Scientists say Trump’s first 2 years have been
fatal for a livable climate
"Cause of death: the Trump presidency."
Moving forward to define and set the path forward for a Green New Deal are increasingly imperative with every passing moment. The Democratic Party must elect, in 2020, a President who will have climate action central to the agenda. And, the Congressional Democrats (especially in the House) must open 2021 with legislation ready to pass that will turn the tide, rapidly, on the damage that Team Trump has fostered and resuscitate a path toward a livable climate.
A new study released by Oil Change International and 17 partner organizations examines the urgent need for U.S. leadership to manage a rapid and just decline of fossil fuel production.
The United States should be a global leader in winding down fossil fuel use and production. Instead, the U.S. oil and gas industry is gearing up to unleash the largest burst of new carbon emissions in the world between now and 2050. At precisely the time in which the world must begin rapidly decarbonizing to avoid runaway climate disaster, the United States is moving further and faster than any other country to expand oil and gas extraction.
Key findings include:
- Unprecedented Oil & Gas Expansion: Between 2018 and 2050, U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves could unlock 120 billion metric tons of new carbon pollution, which is equivalent to the lifetime CO2 emissions of nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants. If not curtailed, U.S. oil and gas expansion will impede the rest of the world’s ability to manage a climate-safe, equitable decline of oil and gas production.
- Expansion Hot Spots: Some 90% of U.S. drilling into new oil and gas reserves through 2050 would depend on fracking; nearly 60% of the carbon emissions enabled by new U.S. drilling would come from the epicenters of fracking – the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Appalachian Basin across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio.
- Coal – Too Much Already: Given U.S. coal mining should be phased out by 2030 or sooner if the world is to equitably achieve the Paris Agreement goals, at least 70% of the coal in existing U.S. mines should stay in the ground.
These findings show that leadership is urgently needed towards a U.S. fossil fuel phase-out that aligns with climate limits, takes care of workers and communities on its front lines, and builds a more healthy and just economy for all in the process.
Key recommendations for what U.S. policymakers must do to show real climate leadership:
- Ban new leases or permits for new fossil fuel exploration, production, and infrastructure;
- Plan for the phase-out of existing fossil fuel projects in a way that prioritizes environmental justice;
- End subsidies and other public finance for the fossil fuel industry;
- Champion a Green New Deal that ensures a just transition to 100 percent renewable energy; and
- Reject the influence of fossil fuel money over U.S. energy policy.